Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
